Its Thursday evening and you are back at it again staring at the charts. You are sitting there pondering to yourself, why is the price dropping again and why did I go all in at $15,000. At the time of…
Just want to shine some light on what’s happening with Bytecoin (BCN), as it is one of the more sophisticated pump and dumps.
So let me first briefly tell you what happened. Earlier today BCN was trading at around 72 satoshi on both HitBTC and Poloniex, quickly increasing 30% when the news of the Binance listing came along. It opened on Binance at around 300 satoshi and over the past few hours the price has risen to 2320 satoshi on Binance, whereas the current price on HitBTC and Poloniex is at 190 satoshi. To put this into perspective, the circulating supply of BCN is 183,878,867,869 (taken from CMC), whereas the current price on Binance is 0.22$. This puts BCN on a market cap of 40 billion $; right on the third position, between Ethereum and Ripple.
I’ve been following it closely and found that withdrawals from HitBTC and Poloniex were not working nor was the BCN webwallet. When checking their blockchain explorer we find that no new blocks have been mined for the past 2 hours. The trading on BCN started at 06:02 UTC and since that time only 46 blocks have been mined, containing a total of 997 transactions. The number of transactions that went through seems very small for a coin that just went up over 32x in a few hours.
Bitcoin (COIN), (OTCQX:GBTC) is not having a great week, and it looks like this sell-off may get even worse. After a failed attempt at $12K, Bitcoin entered the meltdown phase, cratering by roughly 30% in just a few days. Several simultaneous detrimental developments caused this sell-off to intensify after the failed technical attempt sparked the negative price action. However, there is one predominant factor that has become the “elephant in the room.” Bitcoin’s apparent loss of popularity could keep prices depressed for a lot longer than many people expect, and we may be looking at a near perfect storm scenario of events that could cause the current sell-off to become much worse.
The likelihood of bitcoin prices falling to $100 is greater than that of the digital currency trading at $100,000 a decade from now, Harvard University professor and economist Kenneth Rogoff said on Tuesday.
“I think bitcoin will be worth a tiny fraction of what it is now if we’re headed out 10 years from now … I would see $100 as being a lot more likely than $100,000 ten years from now,” Rogoff told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
“Basically, if you…
Sourced through Scoop.it from: www.businessinsider.com.au
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In their 156-page report titled “Fool’s Gold: Unearthing The World of Cryptocurrency,” the firm comprehensively stated that the current bitcoin price above $14,000 is a bubble and does not reflect the true worth of the cryptocurrency. Quinlan associates argued in their write-up that the current price is unreal for bitcoin both as a store of value and a medium of exchange.
The report read:
“As an asset, we valued Bitcoin using a cost of production approach and a store of value approach, resulting in values of $2,161 and $687 respectively. To value BTC as a currency, we estimated its utilisation for both legal, retail transaction payments, as well as payments in the black market. After significant testing, we calculated the price of BTC to be $1,780.”
Do you believe John McAfee is right about Bitcoin hitting $500,000 in 3 years? originally appeared on Quora: the place to gain and share knowledge, empowering people to learn from others and better understand the world.
Answer by Vladimir Novakovski, 8.5 years in hedge funds, on Quora:
It’s interesting that almost all existing analysis of cryptoassets are from the point of view of fundamentals (or lack thereof). It’s often useful to look at things quantitatively instead.
So here, what we really want to understand is the probability of bitcoin reaching $500,000. There are a few ways to do that.
First, we can assume a completely random process and take a “gambler’s ruin” perspective. What is the probability that a random process will hit $500,000 before it hits $0? Given that the price as of Dec 2017 is about $15,000, we’d get $15,000/$500,000 = 3%.
Another approach is to model price as a lognormal process, which is a reasonable assumption to make for a broad set of assets. See Why do prices and income follow a log-normal distribution?
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